Today’s US inflation data for May and the latest FOMC policy decision, including the quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, will be the drivers of market price action over the coming weeks.

Risk markets are on the backfoot as US trading starts, with European indices continuing this week’s move lower. Gold has stabilized and is using chart support to push higher.

The risk gauge for EU bond markets (periphery bond yields) have risen since French President Macro’s announcement to hold parliamentary elections, weighing on the Euro

​​While the Dow continues to struggle, the Nasdaq 100 is back at its previous peak. The Nikkei 225 has made a solid start to the week and is looking to move higher.​

As the US dollar continues to strengthen against the Japanese Yen, all eyes are now on the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting on Friday.

UK job losses accelerated in May by over 50,000 – the most since February 2021 while pay growth rose. The Bank of England meets next week to set interest rates

Stubborn inflation and a robust labour market are likely to add to concerns FOMC members are having around cutting interest rates prematurely. Even growth is on track for a recovery

Gold and silver are trying to recover some of last Friday’s post-NFP heavy losses but further gains may be limited ahead of the latest look at US inflation and the FOMC policy decision.

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and CAC 40 following European election results which saw a significant shift to the right.

The UK job market has eased, unlike what we’ve seen in the US after last week’s NFP surprise. UK growth remains constrained but that has not impeded sterling gains

French President Emmanuel Macron called a snap election after his party suffered a heavy defeat to the far-right National Party at this weekend’s European elections.

A week packed with high impact economic data and events, led by the latest monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.

The massive surprise in US job growth lent a strong hand to the downtrodden dollar ahead of US CPI for May and the FOMC meeting in the week to come.

The NFP report on Friday caused a sizeable amount of volatility as the data caught the forecasters off guard, coming in significantly stronger than anticipated as did wage growth

The latest US NFP data defied fears of a weakening jobs market as 272k joined the workforce, easily beating market forecasts of 185k

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 ahead of US May Non-Farm Payrolls and average hourly earnings data.

Months of restrictive monetary policy have had little effect on the labour market but recent jobs data suggests we may be approaching a steady decline

The South African Rand has surrendered a lot of ground as the uncertainty around the new coalition government hangs in the balance

US Treasury yields remain in a downtrend and that’s hurting the dollar. Gold continues to recover while Bitcoin eyes a new all-time high.

The ECB marked a historic moment, initiating a cutting cycle before the Fed. The euro rose on the back of upward revisions to both inflation and growth in 2024

Indices have seen fresh gains, with the Nasdaq 100 in particular rallying to a new record high.

Sterling continues to push higher against a range of currencies with GBP/USD eyeing a fresh three-month high and EUR/GBP a 22-month low.

Strong ISM services data has helped to stem the recent US dollar sell-off with the business activity index seen at its highest level since November 2022.

The Bank of Canada cuts rates to 4.75% as inflation settles into the target range. Wages, house prices and geopolitical uncertainty still pose risks to the outlook. Dovish repricing seen in CAD

​​Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 ahead of probable 25 bps ECB rate cut.

Gold is looking oversold according to one technical indicator, and any weak US data may see the precious metal turn higher in the short-term